Today's Action Plan — Methodology

The Action Plan converts every block above it (regime, GEX, vol, breadth, overnight flow) into three concrete if/then statements that answer the trader's first question: "What should I do today?"

Three statements, fixed order:

1. Primary Play — derived from the top Hot strategy in the Strategy Fitness Scorecard (Block 4). Tie-break by historical win rate. If no Hot strategy exists, use the top Warm. If none, render the fallback ("Low-conviction day — no high-edge strategy fits current regime"). Variables resolved from warehouse_technicals with null-safe lookups.
2. Specific Watch — top-scored signal from the flow_alertstable that hasn't moved > 1% in pre-market. Renders as "Watch {ticker} first 30 min —{signal_type} {notional} with {context}.{primary_thesis}; {invalidation_condition}." The thesis and invalidation lookup keys on(signal_type, gex_context).
3. Regime Trip-Wire — fixed in role but content varies by current regime. One canonical risk statement per regime (trending_calm, trending_volatile, mean_reverting, risk_off, regime_change). Spec § 4.7: this statement is non-skippable — risk management has no fallback.

Where the matrices live:

• STATEMENT_1_TEMPLATES — 8 strategy templates in src/lib/action-plan/content.ts (one per UIF strategy).
• THESIS_MATRIX — 8 thesis/invalidation pairs keyed by(signal_type, gex_context).
• TRIP_WIRE_MATRIX — 7 regime trip-wires (regime → condition / risk_action / why_it_matters).

Forbidden words. A runtime guard enforces spec § 4.7 — any rendered statement containing "guaranteed","sure thing", "can't lose", or"cannot lose" is replaced with a content-guard fallback before reaching the user. Pre-commit lint also blocks these terms in source.

Sample-size handling.Statement 1 inherits the Block 4 strategy-fitness algorithm and its n ≥ 20 cumulative floor. When a strategy is in Block 4's "Cool" band by floor, it is ineligible to drive Statement 1 — fallback fires instead.

Algorithm version. v1.0 — June 2026 launch.