M2M assigns each UIF strategy a daily edge label based on how its historical win rate in similar regimes compares to its all-regime average. Hot = at least 10 percentage points above average. Warm = 3-10 above. Cool = within 5 below to 3 above. Cold = more than 5 below average. Edge labels are deterministic and reproducible; they are not opinions.
What good looks like
A Hot strategy with n ≥ 50 historical trades in similar regimes. This represents a statistically reliable edge that should be sized at 1.0x (full conviction).
What not good looks like
Trading a Cold strategy because “it will revert.” The edge label is built from historical data; ignoring it overrides the probability framework. Cold strategies should be 0.0x today.